As we kick off the new year here on Maui (January 9, 2026), the real estate market is showing clear signs of stabilization and opportunity after a challenging but transitional 2025. Let me share a quick recap and forward-looking insights tailored to what this means for buyers like you.

2025 in Review: Slow but Steady for Homes, Challenges for Condos Last year delivered exactly what we anticipated in many ways: single-family homes showed slow, steady growth with resilient demand, especially in desirable areas like Central Maui, Kihei, and luxury enclaves (Wailea, Makena, Kapalua). Buyers who acted decisively found strong value in turnkey properties.

Condos, however, experienced more headwinds. The prolonged uncertainty around Maui County Council’s decision on Bill 9 (the short-term vacation rental phase-out ordinance) caused many to pause, leading to softer prices, longer days on market, and increased inventory—particularly in apartment-zoned complexes. This created a buyer’s market in segments affected by potential STVR restrictions, which could translate to excellent opportunities now that clarity has arrived.

The Big News: Bill 9 is Now Law – Bringing Certainty and Opportunities Signed into law on December 15, 2025 (as Ordinance 5909), Bill 9 phases out short-term vacation rentals (STVR) in apartment-zoned districts over time:

• West Maui properties by January 1, 2029
• Rest of the county by January 1, 2031

Hotel- and resort-zoned condos remain fully unaffected and can continue operating as STVRs—maintaining strong investor appeal and rental income potential.

As expected, multiple lawsuits were filed shortly after signing (starting December 19, 2025), challenging the ordinance on constitutional grounds (e.g., regulatory taking without compensation). No injunctions have been granted yet, so the law remains in effect, but these legal challenges could influence timelines or outcomes—something we’ll monitor closely.

What This Means for 2026: A Thawing Market with Buyer Advantages National forecasts align well with Maui’s trajectory: mortgage rates are expected to ease modestly into the high-5% to low-6% range, inventory continues to build gradually (especially in condos), and home prices should see stable, modest appreciation (0.5-4% range nationally, similar locally). The market is “thawing” from 2025’s frozen conditions, with more activity anticipated as lock-in effects fade and buyers accept current rates as the new normal.

On Maui specifically:

• Single-family homes remain a bright spot—steady demand, resilient pricing in prime locations, and solid long-term fundamentals (limited supply, lifestyle appeal).
• Condos are bifurcated: Resort/hotel-zoned properties hold firm with visitor demand; apartment-zoned ones (previously STVR-heavy) may continue adjusting downward in the near term due to the shift to long-term residential use, creating potential bargains for buyers seeking primary homes, second homes, or long-term rentals.

This clarity post-Bill 9 reduces uncertainty—meaning fewer “wait-and-see” sellers and more motivated ones in affected segments. Combined with improving national conditions, 2026 looks like a strategic window: more choices, better negotiating leverage, and the chance to enter before any rebound in stronger segments.

Maui’s enduring strengths—stunning natural beauty, limited development, and appeal to discerning buyers—continue to support the market. Whether you’re eyeing a family home, a luxury retreat, or an investment property, preparation and timing will be key to securing the best outcomes.

If you’re ready to explore current listings, discuss specific neighborhoods, or dive deeper into how these trends align with your goals, let’s connect soon. I’m here to provide personalized insights, market comps, and guidance every step of the way.

Looking forward to helping you make 2026 your year on Maui!

P.S. Rates and inventory are shifting—opportunities like these don’t last forever. Reply or call me today to get ahead of the curve!